There have been some incredible teams over the long history of the NFL, dynasties that have enjoyed sustained success, claiming multiple Super Bowls. The Steelers sides of the late 1970s into the next decade, 10 years on from them, the brilliant 49ers teams, and taking over from them the Dallas side that won three Super Bowls in four years (not to mention the five Super Bowls the Cowboys played in during the 1970s). We cannot fail to mention the incredible success of the New England Patriots under Tom Brady in the 21st century, whilst the three wins for the Steelers between 2005 and 2010 are also noteworthy.
There are others too, with eight different franchises in all winning back-to-back Super Bowls. However, one thing that no side has ever managed is to claim a hat-trick of titles, or what they like to call a “three-peat” in the States. Of course, records are there to be broken and almost all fall eventually. In English football, for instance, no side had ever won four top-flight totals in a row until Man City did in 2023/24 and now they are gunning for five.
With Kansas City Chiefs the dominant force in NFL over the past five years, and winners of the last two Super Bowls, could we see the first three-peat in the history of the sport?
The Story So Far
On the 11th of February, 2024, the Chiefs made it two in a row by beating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime in a truly thrilling clash. Victory in Super Bowl LVIII was their fourth overall, having claimed their third on the 12th of February, 2023 when they beat the Eagles. That was another fantastic showpiece and one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls ever, with Kansas winning 38-35.
They also made it to the decisive game in Super Bowl LV (in 2021, but classed as the 2020 season), where they were beaten by Tampa, the Bucs winning 31-9 with Tom Brady pulling the strings. However, 12 months prior to that, in Super Bowl LIV, the Chiefs had won their second title, seeing off the 49ers 31-20.
With three Super Bowl wins in the past five seasons, plus another appearance in the big game in that timeframe, the Chiefs have clearly established themselves as the top side of the current era. However, at present, other teams have done what they have, claiming back-to-back glory and three Super Bowls in a short period. But Super Bowl LIX gives them a chance to strike out on their own as real history makers by becoming the first side ever to win three in a row.
What Do the Odds Tell Us?
The bookmakers’ odds are always a good place to start when assessing how likely something is. There are factors that mean it is not always perfect but given they have serious skin in the game, they are less influenced by bias and other complicating factors than other sources such as pundits.
Due to the nature of the Super Bowl and the draft system used in US sports, betting for the Super Bowl rarely produces a really short-priced favourite. Typically, there are five or six sides who are deemed to be in with a decent chance and that is, more or less, the case this year. That said, of the sides thought to have a realistic shot at glory, two stand out above the others.
Super Bowl LIX Odds
Below are the top seven teams predicted to win Super Bowl LIX. Note that odds are only correct at the time of writing and are taken from a major UK bookie:
- Kansas City Chiefs @ 5/1
- San Francisco 49ers @ 11/2
- Baltimore Ravens @ 9/1
- Buffalo Bills @ 11/1
- Cincinatti Bengals @ 12/1
- Detroit Lions @ 12/1
- Philadelphia Eagles @ 14/1
Last season’s two Super Bowl teams head the betting with the champions from Super Bowl LVIII marginal favourites. These two also appeared in the showpiece clash in 2020 and have very strong squads, so it is no huge surprise to see them head the betting.
Can They Do It?
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There will, of course, be huge pressure on the Chiefs, and smashing through the ceiling of a record like the three-in-a-row is always tough. More than ever, every other side will be desperate to beat them, whilst fans in opposition stadia will have that extra bit of fire in the belly, cheering the home team on.
Moreover, as good as the Chiefs have been, it is not like they have dominated, either on a week-by-week basis, or in terms of their last Super Bowl win. The 49ers led at half time last season, only being pipped in overtime. There was a small amount of controversy about things too, with some 49ers stating they had not even realised the new OT rules were in play for this game, although in truth this did not really affect the outcome.
The 49ers could so easily have won that game and then, of course, we would not be having this conversation about a possible three-peat. Moreover, in the regular season, the Chiefs only ranked third in their Conference. They were beaten six times in 17 games to finish below the Ravens and the Bills, whilst three teams in the NFS, including San Francisco, boasted a better regular-season record.
On the other hand, the fact that the Chiefs have won three out of five shows how they can raise their level in the biggest games. In Patrick Mahomes, they have perhaps the game’s ultimate leader and he has helped his side to six consecutive Championship Games since becoming starting quarterback. Four Super Bowl appearances and three wins in that period create an astonishing body of work, but of course, one man alone cannot deliver one Super Bowl success, let alone three.
Perhaps their most important member of staff is head coach, Andy Reid. He is a popular coach that the players love and he has built a winning culture. They have traded well too, and so they are certainly worthy favourites. That said, it should be noted that bookie odds of 5/1 equate to around a 16.67% chance of success, so a historic victory is far from secured. We sure can’t wait to watch them try though!