The Battle For Europe is Where the Premier League Excitement Lies Now

There are no Premier League fixtures in the first weekend of March as the FA Cup last 16 takes centre stage. It is a low-key line-up, with no huge standout fixtures and lots of big teams, including three of the Premier League’s top five, already eliminated. Of course, this is the FA Cup, and there are still some fascinating clashes featuring interesting subplots.

Many football fans, however, will be desperate for the return of the English top flight, but with 11 games still to go for all sides apart from Liverpool and Aston Villa (who both have 10), there is a feeling that excitement is lacking there too. That is because in recent weeks we have seen a solidification of a pattern we have witnessed for much of the campaign.

At the top, it increasingly looks like Liverpool are going to romp to a record-tying 20th top-flight title. At the other end of the table, the three new teams who joined the division this season are looking like they will make an instant return to the Championship.

Liverpool Edge Closer

Neutrals hoping for an exciting title battle have seen those wishes fade as Arne Slot’s men have put a minor wobble behind them and produced some solid victories when they were required. Four draws in eight games had potentially given rivals a sniff at the top but back-to-back wins in tough matches – away at Man City and at home to Newcastle – mean they are now a rollicking 13 points clear at the top. They have played a game more than the chasing pack but that is a substantial lead, whilst they are an even more yawning 19 ahead of Forest and 20 in front of Man City.

The title race is all but over and it now seems a matter of when, not if, the Reds will claim their second Premier League title. Arsenal have failed miserably to cash in on the relatively poor form of Slot’s side. Had the Gunners won all of their last eight games they would have clawed back eight points on the leaders and been a mere five adrift with a game in hand.

However, injuries in attacking areas and a failure to add a striker to their ranks in January have left the Gunners badly short of goals. They were on a reasonable run but defeat at home to West Ham, then a draw at Forest in their last two games, coupled with Liverpool’s two wins, means the title will surely be heading to Merseyside.

Bottom Three Could Be Worst Ever

Recent seasons have probably seen the gap between the Premier League and the Championship widen. This leads to a greater disparity between the top tier’s weakest clubs and the more established ones, let alone the biggest teams. Last season’s bottom three were considered among the worst the Premier League has ever seen, with 17th-placed Forest surviving with room to spare on a meagre 32 points.

Sheffield United had 16 points, Burnley 24 and Luton 26 but the bottom three 12 months on may struggle to match those totals. Southampton have just nine points from their 27 games, whilst the two teams above them, who played alongside the Saints in the Championship last term, have 17 and are five points from safety.

Collectively, Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich have now lost 25 of their last 30 games, with the first two clubs both having lost nine of their previous 10. The Foxes, in fact, have been defeated in 11 of their last 12, a shocking run. Wolves could yet get drawn into the relegation battle but it seems unlikely, and so, like at the top of the table, their appears to be little jeopardy at the bottom.

The Race for Europe is Well and Truly On!

11 Premier League teams in action in the FA Cup fifth round across the weekend pic.twitter.com/z8fKBnAmxI

— Premier League (@premierleague) February 28, 2025

Whilst the TV people will do their best to try and create tension where there isn’t any, in reality, barring something miraculous, few will get too excited about the very top and very bottom of the Premier League in the remaining months of the season. However, there is set to be a ferocious battle for a place in next season’s Champions League and Europa League.

Arsenal are probably assured of making the top four (though the top five could be enough for CL qualification) as they sit six points clear in second. But beneath them we have eight teams separated by six points, all of whom will believe they could be playing against the European elite next season.

No matter how many Champions League spots the Premier League ends up with, one of them will be forced to settle for a spot in the Europa League, whilst another will have to make do with the Conference League. And potentially as many as four of them will not have European football at all next term.

The current table from top to 10th can be seen below. We are potentially being generous in assuming that Mikel Arteta’s men are safe up in second but, with 54 points already, they should have enough to hold on to a top-four spot at the very least. As for the rest, it really is game on!

All teams from second to 10th have played 27 games apart from Villa, so Unai Emery’s men are clearly in the weakest position. In addition to their obvious disadvantage, it should also be noted that they are still involved in the current Champions League campaign. Two games against Club Brugge and then a potential collision with either Liverpool or PSG will really test their squad and such fixtures will have at least the same priority as their Premier League ones.

Many will automatically assume that Forest are going to drop away but they said the same thing about Leicester back in 2015/16. And they have been saying the same thing about Nuno’s men for months and yet the two-time European champions remain in third place. Equally, most experts would assume that City will secure a top-four finish and there have certainly been signs of them getting closer to their best.

That said, at times Chelsea, Bournemouth and Newcastle have all looked likely to go on a really strong run. It certainly promises to be a brilliant end to the campaign though and with so many teams in the mix, the “six-pointers” will come thick and fast – we can’t wait!