Should Aston Villa Be Considered Title Contenders?

After a surprisingly strong season so far, Aston Villa sit third in the Premier League table, level on points with Manchester City. Although Unai Emery’s side trail league leaders Arsenal by six points, this is not an insurmountable gap given plenty of the season remains.

If the Gunners do end up slipping up during the season run-in, how likely are Villa to capitalise? Although Villa winning the title would not represent a Leicester City-in-2016-level shock, it would still be a massive upset. Very few people predicted the Villans to finish in the top four, let alone be serious title challengers this season.

Will Villa be able to keep up with Arsenal and Man City, though, or will the next few months see them drop off the pace? An assessment of their season so far can help provide the answer.

State of the Title Race

Before focusing on Villa, it is useful to look at the title race as it stands after 21 rounds. With fourth-place Liverpool trailing Arsenal by 14 points, it seems safe to say we have a three-horse race. At odds of 25/1 though, Villa are very much the dark horse of the contest. If anyone is going to capitalise on a potential Arsenal slump, the bookies expect it to be Man City rather than the Villans.

The Season So Far

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— AFC Bournemouth (@afcbournemouth) November 9, 2025

After an awful start, which saw Villa winless in their first six matches across all competitions, they managed to get their act together. So much so that soon after, they strung together a run of 11 consecutive wins, the final one coming away at Stamford Bridge. In doing so, they matched an all-time club record.

It is interesting to note that after the 4-0 win over Bournemouth early on in this run, the following nine victories came courtesy of a one-goal margin. Unai Emery deserves credit for the turnaround, but it is unusual to see a team winning so often, yet doing so with such a little degree of comfort. Often, the Villans have won these matches while having a lower xG than their opponents, or a very similar figure.

Expected Stats

Before looking at expected stats, it should be pointed out that teams outperforming these metrics is not necessarily down to luck. A clinical finisher can outperform xG consistently, while having a top goalkeeper can help teams outperform their xGA. There are other things xG/xGA do not measure, like a striker being an inch away from tapping in a ball across the six-yard box or a strong penalty appeal not given.

Still, these metrics consistently correlate strongly with actual data, which shows they have some value. The expected points table has Arsenal in first, trailed by Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Newcastle and Chelsea, in that order. Obviously, the only thing that really matters is the actual table, but expected stats can give some indication of how the future might pan out. Here are Villa’s stats.

A significant, but far from unprecedented, overperformance of goals scored and goals conceded has resulted in Villa gaining far more points than expected. A swing of 17.8 points is a gigantic one, especially at this point in the season. The next biggest overachievers are Sunderland, who are up 10.2 points on their expected figure.

At this point, it is worth saying that odd anomalies regularly happen. Last season, Nottingham Forest outperformed their expected points by 14.99, and the year before, Man United earned 15.58 points more than their expected figure. So, it would be wrong to assume Villa cannot simply be the latest example.

At the same time, though, with 17 games to go, if things were to continue in exactly the same way, Villa would end up outperforming their expected points by 31 points, something which would smash any existing records. This is just very unlikely to happen, so to maintain pace with the leaders, Villa will need to find a higher level of performance on a consistent basis.

Limited January Transfer Activity

Villa have done exceptionally well so far this campaign, but there are a lot of games to come, and the data suggests they not only need to keep going, but actually improve. This is going to be a challenge for a team that does not have much room to manoeuvre in the January transfer window. It did seem that the Villans were going to secure Conor Gallagher to bolster their midfield, but the former Chelsea man chose Tottenham instead.

The club have brought in Alysson, but as a 19-year-old moving to England for the first time, it is unlikely he will make a big initial impact. His arrival is not a net gain either, as he is effectively just replacing the outgoing Donyell Malen. The Dutchman, who made 29 appearances this season, scoring seven goals, is on the brink of a loan move to AS Roma. As things stand, the Villans will end the window with a squad weaker than what they started.

No Burnout

So far, we have focused on reasons why Villa will not stay within touching distance of Arsenal, but there are a couple of reasons to suggest they can manage it. For one, Emery has managed to avoid working his players too hard this Premier League season. Not only has he rotated well, but players have been able to conserve some energy during matches.

Metric	Number	League Rank (ordered high to low)
Starting XI Changes	49	4th
Current Injuries	4	14th
Distance run per game (km)	107.7	19th
Total sprints	2732	15th
Pressures and Runs	10114	20th
Recovery Runs	599	13th

Here we have a side who makes plenty of changes to the starting eleven, have few injuries and does not run around a lot during matches. This makes Villa very well placed to keep going strong even for the latter weeks of the season. You may point out that the Villans also have European commitments, but so do their fellow title hopefuls.

Upcoming Fixtures

Another point in favour of Villa is that their upcoming league fixtures are quite kind. Villa fans will be looking at their next seven league matches and thinking they could very easily collect six wins. The only tough-looking match is the away trip to Newcastle, given the Magpies’ strength at home.

Upcoming Fixtures	Date
Villa vs Everton	18th Jan
Newcastle vs Villa	25th Jan
Villa vs Brentford	1st Feb
Bournemouth vs Villa	7th Feb
Villa vs Brighton	11th Feb
Villa vs Leeds	21st Feb
Wolves vs Villa	27th Feb

It is plausible that Villa end up reducing the gap on Arsenal over this time because the Gunners have a tougher run of fixtures.

Conclusion

When comparing squads and underlying stats, it is hard to see Aston Villa having enough to overtake Arsenal. However, their energy-conserving playing style, limited injuries and favourable upcoming fixtures could keep them in the title race for another month or two.