Coventry City and Ipswich Town earned automatic promotion to the Premier League by finishing first and second in the Championship, respectively. And we now know that the third team to play in the English top tier next term will either be Hull City or Southampton. The former saw off Millwall in the semis, while the latter got the better of Middlesbrough.
The final will take place at Wembley on the 23rd of May, with Hull designated as the “home” team. The Tigers finished sixth in the second tier on 73 points, only squeezing into the play-offs ahead of Wrexham and Derby on a dramatic final day of the normal campaign.
| Pos. | Team | Won | Drawn | Lost | G. Diff | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 28 | 11 | 7 | +52 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 23 | 15 | 8 | +33 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 24 | 11 | 11 | +15 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 22 | 14 | 10 | +26 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 22 | 14 | 10 | +25 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull | 21 | 10 | 15 | +4 | 73 |
Meanwhile, the Saints, who were relegated along with Ipswich (and Leicester, who will be in League One next term) around 12 months ago, were fourth. They finished level with Boro on 80 points but above them on goal difference, and three points behind Millwall.
Saints Favourites
Southampton earned promotion to the Premier League in the 2023/24 campaign through the play-offs, so they certainly know what it takes to win the key game at Wembley. Back then, they beat West Brom in the semis and Leeds in the final.
However, the Tigers also have experience of making it to the Premier League via this route. In 2016, they overcame Derby and then Sheffield Wednesday, while they also made it to football’s promised land in the 2008/09 campaign. Back then, they beat Watford in the two-legged semi and Bristol 1-0 in the final.
In fact, in all three of the aforementioned play-off deciders, the match ended 1-0. This is perhaps unsurprising in a game where there is so, so much on the line. It is a high-pressure game where neither side wants to make a mistake, and other recent finals have also ended with just a single goal scored, while a couple of others have needed extra time after a 1-1 or 0-0 draw.
While there was a gap of seven points between the rivals in the final Championship table, and Southampton were magnificent in the second half of the campaign, it is reasonable to expect a tight game at Wembley. The bookies make the Saints big favourites, though. They are odds on to win in 90 minutes and just 7/20 to lift the trophy. Hull are 7/4 in that latter market, which may appeal to many in a one-off game.
Southampton have not lost in the Championship since the 17th of January. Their form in the latter part of the campaign was stunning and also included wins over Leicester, Fulham and Arsenal in the FA Cup. They even came close to beating Manchester City in the semis, and Tonda Eckert has his side playing some exciting football.
But Hull Cannot be Written Off
Hull’s fortunes have been rather different. After 31 games, they were up in third in the table and potentially eyeing automatic promotion. As good a job as Eckert has done, Hull’s boss, Sergej Jakirovic, from Bosnia and Herzegovina, has probably done even better. The Tigers finished 21st in the second tier last term, and many tipped them for relegation this time around. Instead, they have been the surprise package of the Championship.
Their form slipped away dramatically at the most important part of the season. Just as soon as their challenge for a top-two finish began, they stopped winning games. After reaching third, they lost five of their next eight matches. In mid-March, they saw off Sheffield Wednesday, a side who ended the campaign on zero points! But then, at the most important stage of the campaign, they embarked on a run of six games without victory.
Having been in the top six for 24 straight matchweeks, they dropped to seventh with three games to play. However, they pulled it out of the bag on the final day of the season, beating Norwich 2-1 at home. That was enough to see them leapfrog Wrexham, and they then backed it up magnificently by overcoming Millwall over two legs. Being able to get results in those games when so much was on the line will have given them a huge boost ahead of their trip to Wembley.
Richest Game?
Both sets of fans will be desperate to see their club’s return to the Premier League. The chance to mix it with the very best teams in the world and see players like Erling Haaland up close is a huge prize. However, for the bean-counters at Southampton and Hull, the huge financial rewards on offer in the top flight will probably mean more than the romance and glory. Damn those bean-counters!
The Championship play-off final has long been dubbed the richest game in football. That is because whoever goes up is guaranteed an astronomical boost to their finances. The Championship is big in global terms with regard to its attendances, commercial revenue and TV deal. But the top flight is on a whole different level.
It is believed that promotion is worth over £200m to the successful club. That includes their share of the bumper Premier League television deals for at least one season, guaranteed “parachute payments” if they suffer instant relegation, around £2m for the play-off final itself (in gate receipts) and more. But who will win?