The World Cup is upon us, and after four years of waiting and multiple controversies, we can now focus on the football. As ever, much attention is on how England will do. After the Three Lions put in an excellent performance in their final warm-up match, outclassing Costa Rica in a game they deservedly won 3-0, their position as one of the pre-tournament favourites has strengthened. They’ll lose on penalties in the last 32.
The other main focus is on who will lift the trophy and why it will be Spain. Or Brazil. Or maybe France. Lots of people will be betting on who will lift the trophy on the 19th of July, but one of the other interesting bets and talking points is about who will score the most goals in North America.
The Golden Boot
The Golden Boot should not be confused with the Golden Ball. It is not uncommon for the same player to win both. The former is our concern here and is given to the top goalscorer at the finals. The latter is awarded to the best player, as voted for by a media panel, using a shortlist decided by the FIFA technical committee.
Over the years, the Golden Boot has been won by many of the greatest players to have graced the game. Portugal’s Eusebio won in 1966, Gerd Muller won four years later, with Brazil’s Ronaldo (2002) and current holder Kylian Mbappé more recent winners.
Gary Lineker and Harry Kane may not quite rank alongside those legends, but they have both won the Golden Boot, sometimes called the Golden Shoe. Lineker triumphed in 1986, with Kane doing so in 2018. On both occasions, England’s top striker registered six goals, but how many are usually needed to claim this prestigious prize?
Previous Winners
The table below shows all the winners, their countries, and the number of goals they scored.
| Year | Player | Nationality | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1930 | Guillermo Stabile | Argentina | 8 |
| 1934 | Oldrich Nejedly | Czechoslovakia | 5 |
| 1938 | Leonidas | Brazil | 7 |
| 1950 | Ademir | Brazil | 9 |
| 1954 | Sandor Kocsis | Hungary | 11 |
| 1958 | Just Fontaine | France | 13 |
| 1962 | Florian Albert, Valentin Ivanov, Garrincha, Vava, Drazan Jerkovic, Leonel Sanchez | Hungary, Soviet Union, Brazil, Brazil, Yugoslavia, Chile | 4 |
| 1966 | Eusebio | Portugal | 9 |
| 1970 | Gerd Muller | West Germany | 10 |
| 1974 | Grzegorz Lato | Poland | 7 |
| 1978 | Mario Kempes | Argentina | 6 |
| 1982 | Paolo Rossi | Italy | 6 |
| 1986 | Gary Lineker | England | 6 |
| 1990 | Salvatore Schillaci | Italy | 6 |
| 1994 | Oleg Salenko, Hristo Stoichkov | Russia, Bulgaria | 6 |
| 1998 | Davor Suker | Croatia | 6 |
| 2002 | Cristiano Ronaldo | Brazil | 8 |
| 2006 | Miroslav Klose | Germany | 5 |
| 2010 | Thomas Muller | Germany | 5 |
| 2014 | James Rodriguez | Colombia | 6 |
| 2018 | Harry Kane | England | 6 |
| 2022 | Kylian Mbappé | France | 8 |
Should players score the same number of goals, then the winner is decided first by assists and then secondly by minutes played (the player to have been on the pitch the least wins). These tiebreakers have not always been used, and the system has changed over the years, although it should be noted that assists were in play in 1994 but not minutes played. Salenko, who featured in just three games, and Stoichkov shared the prize thanks to registering one assist each.
In the 22 World Cups prior to the 2026 tournament, six goals would have been enough to take individual glory (including ties) on 14 occasions. Over the years, lots of things have changed, most notably the number of teams taking part and thus the number of matches a successful player might be expected to feature in.
1982 was the first time more than 16 nations played at the finals, with expansion to 24, then 32 for France in 1998 and now, controversially, 48. More teams, more games, more goals? Well, that has not proven to be the case, with football being a higher-scoring game, for various reasons, in years gone by. So, while we might have expected the Golden Boot-winners tally to have increased over the past 50 years, that has not been the case.
Over the first six World Cups, the average goals total of the top scorer was 8.83. Six goals would have been enough just once, in 1934. Conversely, therefore, more recently, the magic number of six has an even better strike rate than the overall 14 from 22 (64%). Looking at the era since 1982, when the Golden Boot became an official award, six goals would have earned the prize (or a tie for top scorer) on a massive nine times out of 11.
What About 2026?
Who will win the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup? pic.twitter.com/03Yfxbt7jq
— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) June 10, 2026
A side that makes it to the final (or semis due to the third-place play-off) of the World Cup will play eight games in 2026. That is at least one more than any previous tournament. What’s more, the expansion has meant that this latest edition of the event will feature some real minnows, including the likes of Haiti, Curacao and Cape Verde. That could give some of the big-hitters the chance to rack up the goals, so we could see more than six goals needed.
That said, modern football is very controlled and even sides such as Jordan and Uzbekistan, both making their World Cup debuts (as are Curacao and Cape Verde), will be well organised. Brazil might hit Haiti for eight, or Spain might spank Cape Verde and score six or more. There will even be some smaller nations making it through beyond the group phase. That means that a confident striker could have two matches to really make hay. But we doubt it will happen. Let’s say six goals will be enough!