Jannik Sinner was one of the biggest favourites at a Grand Slam in a long time heading into the 2026 French Open. After an unprecedented run of success, which saw him win a record six Masters 1000 events in a row, with most of his wins along the way coming in straight sets, it would have been very hard to find someone who didn’t think he would succeed in Paris.
With key rival Carlos Alcaraz out injured, it really did seem like nobody could beat him, and when he went two sets to love up in his second-round match, and then 5-1 up in the third, that view only strengthened. But somehow, from a seemingly unassailable position, the “unbeatable” Italian crumbled. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo, from Argentina, somehow fought back to win the match.
Sinner struggled with the extreme heat in which the match was played and said that on the morning of the match he “didn’t feel very well” and that he “just kind of hit the wall”. It was a huge, huge shock and brought to an end the Italian’s run of 30 consecutive wins, seeing him win all three big clay events ahead of the French Open, in Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome.
Favourite to Claim Major No. 5
Despite his troubles in France, with Alcaraz having to miss Wimbledon, still injured, Sinner was the clear pre-tournament favourite to defend his title. He beat Alcaraz in the 2025 final at SW19, and with the Spaniard again absent, bookies made Sinner the 8/15 favourite.
Bookies and pundits clearly felt that what happened in Paris was a blip that would not be repeated. It was felt that what happened at the French Open was a one-off and that Sinner simply suffered some sort of physical breakdown in the heat. His form over the past six months and more has been sublime. Such is the dominance that he and Alcaraz had enjoyed over the past few years, with the Spaniard recuperating, there could only be one winner.
Survives Huge Scare
A fifth Grand Slam was surely a formality, and his first clash, against Serbian Miomir Kecmanovic, who is 26, seemed like a nice way for him to ease into the tournament. However, Kecmanovic, who is ranked number 50 in the world and boasts a career-best rank of 27 (in January 2023), clearly hadn’t read the script.
He produced some excellent tennis and made the most of an uncharacteristically error-laden performance from the man who is streaks ahead at the top of the world rankings. Sinner decided not to play a grass-court tournament in preparation for Wimbledon, and it soon began to look like that might have been a mistake.
The underdog took the first set 6-4, but it seemed he would win the match easily enough when he cut out some mistakes to take the second set 6-3. However, the contest turned again in the third set, with Kecmanovic edging it in a tiebreaker (8-6).
Sinner seemed to slip during that third set, and there were fears from the crowd – and the umpire – after he took some time to get up. Sinner has a very poor record in five-set matches, and when blood began to seep through his shoe in the fourth set, one he needed to win, things really did not look good for the favourite.
Thankfully for the Italian’s fans, he managed to find another gear when his back was against the wall. Despite the bleeding, which he would later joke about and say was worse than it looked, he won the final two sets 6-2, 6-3. He showed more of his usual self and was also helped by a drop in Kecmanovic’s level, with the Serb tensing up a little with the biggest win of his career in sight.
Kecmanovic had never beaten a top-10 player in a Grand Slam, and that helped Sinner avoid the ignominy of becoming just the third champion in Wimbledon history to fall at the first hurdle defending their men’s crown. In the end, it is a case of job done, but Sinner will clearly need to play much better as the tournament wears on.
Could Djokovic Land 25th Major?
One man who will have very much enjoyed, in the nicest possible way, Sinner’s struggles is Novak Djokovic. His quest for a record-breaking 25th major goes on, and the longer it does, the less likely it gets that he will make yet more history.
Wimbledon may well be his best chance, though, with the grass courts especially fast as they are set to be, leading to shorter points. With age against him and his body struggling to hold up this season, that will be in his favour. If Sinner falls early and Djokovic can build up a head of steam, he might just have a chance.
That said, predicting the champion with no Alcaraz and Sinner seemingly vulnerable is far from easy. There are several grass-court specialists, such as Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton and Alex De Minaur, who might just fancy their chances.